* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Gulf Shores
- Orange Beach
- Fort Morgan

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Wind less than 39 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: The sustained wind should remain less than tropical
storm force. Conditions may still be gusty.
- PREPARE: Listen for any instructions from local officials.
- ACT: Ensure emergency readiness should the forecast change.

- REALIZED IMPACTS: Being Assessed
- Little to no additional wind impacts expected. Community
officials are now assessing the extent of actual wind
impacts accordingly.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: through this afternoon

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Shelter against storm surge flooding greater than 1
foot above ground.
- PREPARE: All flood preparations should be complete. Expect
flooding of low-lying roads and property.
- ACT: Stay away from storm surge prone areas. Continue to
follow the instructions of local officials.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
- Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little or no
potential for flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has decreased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: There is little or no potential for flooding rain.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations are needed to protect
against flooding rain at this time.
- ACT: Monitor for changes to the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from flooding rain.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tornado Watch is in effect
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has decreased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plans should still include the potential for a few
tornadoes.
- PREPARE: Keep informed should additional weather alerts be
needed.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- For evacuation and shelter information, please refer to:
- Baldwin County EMA: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- For storm surge threat graphics and other storm impacts:
- NWS Mobile: www.weather.gov/mob

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Daphne
- Fairhope
- Foley

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Wind less than 39 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: The sustained wind should remain less than tropical
storm force. Conditions may still be gusty.
- PREPARE: Listen for any instructions from local officials.
- ACT: Ensure emergency readiness should the forecast change.

- REALIZED IMPACTS: Being Assessed
- Little to no additional wind impacts expected. Community
officials are now assessing the extent of actual wind
impacts accordingly.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: through this afternoon

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Shelter against storm surge flooding greater than 1
foot above ground.
- PREPARE: All flood preparations should be complete. Expect
flooding of low-lying roads and property.
- ACT: Stay away from storm surge prone areas. Continue to
follow the instructions of local officials.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
- Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has decreased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tornado Watch is in effect
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has decreased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plans should still include the potential for a few
tornadoes.
- PREPARE: Keep informed should additional weather alerts be
needed.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- For evacuation and shelter information, please refer to:
- Baldwin County EMA: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- For storm surge threat graphics and other storm impacts:
- NWS Mobile: www.weather.gov/mob

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Bay Minette
- Stockton

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Wind less than 39 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: The sustained wind should remain less than tropical
storm force. Conditions may still be gusty.
- PREPARE: Listen for any instructions from local officials.
- ACT: Ensure emergency readiness should the forecast change.

- REALIZED IMPACTS: Being Assessed
- Little to no additional wind impacts expected. Community
officials are now assessing the extent of actual wind
impacts accordingly.

* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.

- REALIZED IMPACTS: Being Assessed
- Little to no additional surge impacts expected. Community
officials are now assessing the extent of actual surge
impacts accordingly.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has decreased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tornado Watch is in effect
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has decreased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plans should still include the potential for a few
tornadoes.
- PREPARE: Keep informed should additional weather alerts be
needed.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- For evacuation and shelter information, please refer to:
- Baldwin County EMA: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- For storm surge threat graphics and other storm impacts:
- NWS Mobile: www.weather.gov/mob

* WHAT...For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking
waves of 7 to 10 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip
Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the Coastal Flood
Warning, significant coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...Mobile Coastal and Baldwin Coastal Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Warning, until 7 PM CDT Thursday. For
the High Rip Current Risk, through Friday afternoon. For the
Coastal Flood Warning, from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Roads may be closed. Low lying property including
homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure will be
inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur. Breaking waves can
sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas.
Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach
erosion can be expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Shoreline locations near Highway 163
(Dauphin Island Parkway) on the north side of the Dog River
Bridge from just north of Helen Wood Park to the south end of
North Marina Drive may also be flooded.

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening
surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside
infrastructure.

* WHAT...Significant coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...Mobile Central and Baldwin Central Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Numerous roads may be closed. Low lying property
including homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure
will be inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Both eastbound and westbound 1-10 ramps
on US 90/98 Causeway can be closed after becoming impassable due
to flood waters. Areas around the I-10 ramps (especially the
east bound on-ramp and the west bound off-ramp) are often
flooded to the point that they become impassable and closed to
traffic.

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

* WHAT...For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking
waves of 7 to 10 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip
Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the Coastal Flood
Warning, significant coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...Mobile Coastal and Baldwin Coastal Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Warning, until 7 PM CDT Thursday. For
the High Rip Current Risk, through Friday afternoon. For the
Coastal Flood Warning, from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Roads may be closed. Low lying property including
homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure will be
inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur. Breaking waves can
sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas.
Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach
erosion can be expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Shoreline locations near Highway 163
(Dauphin Island Parkway) on the north side of the Dog River
Bridge from just north of Helen Wood Park to the south end of
North Marina Drive may also be flooded.

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening
surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside
infrastructure.

* WHAT...For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking
waves of 7 to 10 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip
Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the Coastal Flood
Warning, significant coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...Mobile Coastal and Baldwin Coastal Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Warning, until 7 PM CDT Thursday. For
the High Rip Current Risk, through Friday afternoon. For the
Coastal Flood Warning, from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Roads may be closed. Low lying property including
homes, businesses, and some critical infrastructure will be
inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur. Breaking waves can
sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas.
Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach
erosion can be expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Shoreline locations near Highway 163
(Dauphin Island Parkway) on the north side of the Dog River
Bridge from just north of Helen Wood Park to the south end of
North Marina Drive may also be flooded.

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.

Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening
surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside
infrastructure.

HLSMOB

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**FRANCINE SET TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Central,
Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, George, Greene, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland, Perry, Stone, and Wayne

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 120 miles west of Mobile AL or about 170 miles west of
Pensacola FL
- 30.9N 90.1W
- Storm Intensity 45 mph
- Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Francine will continue to move across southeastern
Louisiana into south central Mississippi early this morning. Coastal
flooding of up to 2 to 3 feet and tropical storm force winds are
expected early this morning, with conditions improving by noon. Some
minor flooding and ponding of water on roadways will likely occur
through the morning hours, especially across the western Florida
Panhandle and south central Alabama.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
southeastern Mississippi and coastal Alabama. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama. Gusty winds will be possible with
limited impacts.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Coastal Alabama. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 10 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.